CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-02-18T01:25:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from  excerpted Forecast Discussion below)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
--
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Feb 18 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 1977 (S11W22, Eac/beta-gamma) continued
to produce low level C-flares as well as a couple of optical subflares.
Nominal spot growth and weak mixed polarities were still observed in the
southwest quadrant of the region, but slight decay was noted in the
trailer spots. Region 1974 (S12W84, Ekc/beta-gamma) continued to
progress towards the West limb, remains one of the most complex regions,
yet was still fairly inactive. Region 1980 (S14W39, Hax/alpha) produced
a single C1 flare at 17/2014 UTC, but was quiet thereafter. Region 1982
(S10E63, Dki/beta) was responsible for a C3/Sf flare at 18/0959 UTC. No
Lasco imagery is available to determine whether there was an associated
coronal mass ejection (CME), but due to the proximity to the East limb,
any CME produced would likely be directed away from the Sun-Earth line.
Region 1976 produced the largest flare of the period, a C4/Sf, that
occurred at 18/0133 UTC. Simultaneously, a 45deg long eruptive filament
centered near S43E45, was seen lifting off the solar disk from 18/0015 -
18/0158 UTC. The associated asymmetric full halo CME, first seen in
Lasco C2 imagery at approximately 18/0125 UTC, appears to have at least
a portion of the ejecta Earth-directed and had a preliminary estimated
speed of approximately 695 km/s. Analysis is on-going and an Enlil run
has been submitted to determine speed, timing, and potential impacts to
Earth as it passes the magnetosphere. New Region 1983 (S12E47, Cso/beta)
was numbered overnight, showing signs of slight growth.


....

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Feb 19 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 1982 (S11E57, Dki/beta-gamma) was the
most active, in terms of flare production, with a couple low-level
C-class flares and frequent optical subflares. There were signs of minor
mixed polarities in the intermediate portion of Region 1982, but
analysis was hampered by limb proximity. Region 1976 (S16W56, Cho/beta)
showed minor spot development and produced a C4/Sf flare at 18/0133 UTC,
which was the largest flare of the period. Region 1974 (S12W89,
Ekc/beta-gamma) was quiet as it was crossing the west limb. Region 1977
(S11W30, Eai/beta) showed gradual spot decay in its leader and
intermediate portions, along with magnetic simplification. A 45-degree
filament erupted from the southeast quadrant during 18/0015 - 0158 UTC
associated with an Earth-directed, asymmetric, full-halo coronal mass
ejection (CME). Analysis of coronagraph imagery indicated an approximate
CME speed of 695 km/s, with most of the ejecta headed southward.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low during Feb 19 - 21 with a chance
for an M-class flare.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit became slightly enhanced beginning around 18/0900 UTC, reached a
peak of 1 pfu at 18/1820 UTC, then gradually decreased toward background
levels. There was no obvious source for the proton enhancement.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels during the period (Feb 19 - 21). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at
background levels during the period.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
ACE data indicated a mildly disturbed solar wind flow, beginning at
around 18/0500 UTC, possibly associated with a near miss from recent CME
activity. Wind speed was around 350 km/s at the beginning of the period,
then increased during 18/0500 - 1000 UTC to a high of 441 km/s. By
18/1200 UTC wind speed settled-in at around 400 km/s and remained so for
the remainder of the day. IMF Bt showed a modest 2nT increase at around
18/0545 UTC, followed by a gradual increase as the day progressed (peak
around 8 nT at the close of the period). IMF Bz was variable in the 7
nT to -6 nT range during the first half of the day, then turned mostly
southward during the latter half of the day (maximum deflections to -8
nT).

.Forecast...
Nominal solar wind conditions are expected to persist through Feb 20. A
CME arrival is expected near end of day on Feb 20. Wind speed is
expected to increase to around 500 km/s on Feb 21 with the passage of
this CME (based on the latest Enlil model output), along with increased
IMF Bt and IMF Bz variability.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during Feb 19 -
20. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to active levels on Feb
21, with a chance for minor storm levels, due to an expected CME
passage.

--
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Feb 19 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 19-Feb 21 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 19-Feb 21 2014

            Feb 19     Feb 20     Feb 21
00-03UT        2          2          3     
03-06UT        1          1          4     
06-09UT        1          1          4     
09-12UT        1          1          3     
12-15UT        1          1          3     
15-18UT        1          1          2     
18-21UT        2          2          2     
21-00UT        2          2          1     

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels
during Feb 19 - 20. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to active
levels on Feb 21, with a chance for G1-minor storm levels, due to the
expected 18 Feb CME passage.
...

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